At the core of Arsht’s model is the attempt to separate skill from circumstance. Wars are influenced by countless external factors: the size of armies, logistical networks, geography, morale, and even weather. A great general cannot control all of these, but his tactical brilliance may bend them to his favor. By assigning each battle a weighted WAR score—positive for outperforming expectations, negative for underperforming—the analysis filters out sheer luck or overwhelming numbers. For instance, in the famous Battle of Borodino in 1812, Napoleon earned a WAR of +0.49, meaning his leadership gave France nearly a 50% higher chance of victory than an average commander would have. Conversely, his Russian opponent Kutuzov scored –0.49, signaling underperformance. Across hundreds of such instances, patterns emerge, and greatness begins to take quantifiable form.
