The Ten Greatest Generals in History: A Statistical Perspective

Military history is often shaped by legends, stories of courage, and tales of decisive battles that altered the course of civilizations. Yet beyond the myths lies the question of how we can objectively measure the greatness of a general. Ethan Arsht, a data researcher, approached this challenge with a rigorous statistical model. He collected data from over 3,580 battles involving 6,619 generals across centuries, attempting to quantify their performance through a metric called WAR, or “Wins Above Replacement.” Much like the concept borrowed from baseball analytics, this score evaluates how much better—or worse—a commander performed compared to a hypothetical replacement given the same circumstances. While the model is not flawless, it provides one of the most compelling numerical comparisons of generalship ever attempted. The resulting list of the top ten victorious generals in history offers both confirmation of long-held beliefs and surprising revelations.